Daring 8-Ball on Microsoft's Zune

John Gruber of Daring Fireball pulls out the Magic 8-Ball again, this time to get the scoop on the Microsoft "Zune", their forthcoming "iPod-killer":

Q: ...Is that not the epitome of metastatic corporate bureaucracy? One division within Microsoft spending $100 million or more to launch their own closed media player system; another division charged with lining up “partners” for the PlaysForSure platform that Microsoft’s own media player division deems not good enough.

A: YES.

Q: Isn’t that like inviting guests to your home for dinner and serving them hot dogs while you yourself eat a steak?

A: AS I SEE IT, YES.

Q: And so now that Microsoft is abandoning the licensing model (or at least deprecating it) in favor of a closed model that they completely control, will all those pundits who’ve been predicting doom for the iPod for the last four years declare that Microsoft, like Apple, is now making the same mistake with Zune that Apple made with the Macintosh in the 1980s?

A: DON’T COUNT ON IT.

Q: Jackasses.

A: WITHOUT A DOUBT.

Q: The “leaks” about Zune strike me as rather comically transparent. The gist of their origin seems to be that Microsoft has been making the rounds to various “partners” — which in this case means the entertainment industry and iPod peripheral makers — to line up content and peripheral support for the Zune, and that it’s these “partners who’ve been briefed by Microsoft” who are leaking the details. My guess is that it went something like this: some guy from Microsoft showed up, delivered his spiel, and then gave a big wink and said something like “This is all top-secret stuff, so whatever you do, don’t go and blab about all these details to Engadget and Gizmodo! And for god’s sake don’t send them this photograph which I’m emailing a copy of to each of you right now! Can you see that I’m winking? Winking is a social cue that you use when you say one thing but mean the opposite!”

A: IT IS DECIDEDLY SO.